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  • #475174

    Jamie
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    So , if I understand it correctly , no one really believes that Mr Farage will even get seats in the UK parliament and absolutely no chance at all into the British government ? Sounds like Hilary Clinton supporters to me ! Next scenario , for Jamie et al. The UK eventually leaves the EU , one way or another . The SNP declares UDI and the UK becomes DUK ,the tories manage to stay on until 2022 when the next election is planned , (they seem to be able to drag everything out for years) Mr Corbyn gets more seats than the tories ( whoever their leader will be) but not enough to govern , so what happens then ? :-)

    I am not sure what Hillary Clinton has got to do with it, I am certainly not a supporter of hers and it doesn’t have anything to do with British politics.

    Because of the collapse in Tory and Labour support in Scotland over their Brexit stance, the SNP is projected to win 56 seats and get back everything they gained in 2015 and lost in 2017.

    However, in the scenario you outline, which I think means a situation whereby Scotland becomes independent, the House of Commons would contain 591 MPs, as opposed to the current 650.

    So what happens if Scotland was no longer relevant?  Instead of winning 339 seats, Labour would win 338 (as they are only projected to win one in Scotland at the moment).  With only 591 MPs, a majority requires 296 seats, not 326 as at present.

    Therefore with an independent Scotland, and with the Brexit Party still splitting the Tories’ vote, Labour would actually win a majority of around 84 on current polling.

    So in short… Scottish independence would remove a potential coalition partner, but it would also negate the need for one.

    However… if as per your scenario we have left the EU by then, what relevance will the Brexit Party have?  It’s hard to say, but presumably they will have folded and its supporters gone back to the Tories.

    In that case, an election would be more of a race between Labour and the Tories but both would still be suffering from their more pro-European supporters presumably dropping them because they facilitated Brexit.

    It’s what happened in the recent local elections, and it looks likely to happen in the European elections, where current polling has all pro-Brexit parties down (16 seats between them, mostly Tory losses but with Brexit Party actually doing worse than Ukip in 2014 and getting 22 seats not 24) and all pro-EU parties up (17 seats up, mostly Lib Dem).

    So… in your scenario, where Brexit has happened and Scotland has become independent, I would say either: a) Labour enters a coalition, or at least confidence-and-supply, with the Lib Dems, who will be much bigger or b) they can’t form a successful minority government and there is another election.

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    #475182

    Vegemite Kid
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    I am not sure what Hillary Clinton has got to do with it, I am certainly not a supporter of hers and it doesn’t have anything to do with British politics.

    If you read a few posts previously, Jamie, you will see what Deboer meant, he explained what he meant and apparently you missed that post. Click here and you will see his post.

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    #475189

    Jamie
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    I am not sure what Hillary Clinton has got to do with it, I am certainly not a supporter of hers and it doesn’t have anything to do with British politics.

    If you read a few posts previously, Jamie, you will see what Deboer meant, he explained what he meant and apparently you missed that post. Click here and you will see his post.

    I see, thank you.

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    #475199

    Futureman
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    That nice Mr Hitler rose to power on a socialist ticket, soon as he got in he ditched the socialist’s and had their leaders done in.

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    #475243

    Deboer
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    That nice Mr Hitler rose to power on a socialist ticket, soon as he got in he ditched the socialist’s and had their leaders done in.

    Yes indeed , and that was one of the reasons for the Common Market/EU in the first place. Happily we are on this side of the channel .

    Thanks Jamie , you are far ahead of me on British politics , i’m just on the sidelines . Interesting times indeed , especially if a heavily socialist government is formed.

    The future will show what happens ? I don’t think many people could have prophesied the occurrences in the UK of the last few years . :-)

     

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